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Infrastructure > Risk Analysis (Infrastructure)
Author : Travis McGrath, Golder Associates
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Author : Frank Vanderlean, Ontario Ministry of Transportation; Roy Skelton, MRC
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Author : David Eden, Ontario Power Generation; Susan Sherman, URS Canada Inc.
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Author : Travis McGrath
Description : As consultants, we have been involved with the development and maturation of several transportation agencies’ programs for managing project cost and schedule risk. Along the way, the agencies’ programs evolved in various ways to meet their particular needs and to overcome challenges. We offer our external perspective on some lessons learned and continuing challenges for these and other agencies in their pursuit of effective project risk-management programs.
Author : David Lewis
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Author : David Lewis
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Title : Building a Risk Program at WSDOT (Adobe Acrobat - ".pdf" | 2009 | #321)
Author : Terry Berends
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Author : Will Willson, Director of Risk Management Gardiner & Theobald Inc.
Description :

So what exactly should go on a risk register. Typically time is limited for identification of risks and more importantly time is even more limited in the future for reviewing and managing the risks.  Once a risk gets on the risk register it should be reviewed, and in particular on a public project, any subsequent change in the wording, change to the impact or change to the likelihood all could have serious ramifications if it gets in the public domain.  So it’s important to be conscious from the outset that the risk register should naturally capture the important issues but not perhaps be so comprehensive as to create a “rod” for the projects back for ever more that the project staff cannot maintain. 

The fact is that a large list of risks quickly becomes unmanageable and turns into a paper chase that everyone ignores, and even ‘hates’ !  Risk registers become cluttered with issues that are often simply unresolved design issues. Time taken to laboriously review and ‘score’ a risk register starts to become tedious to management & project staff and the impetus is quickly lost.  Then the  strive to make a seamless link between a risk register and a risk model complicates matters since the risk model demands uncertainty and unless risks are comprehensively set out there is little to hang cost and schedule impacts upon.  Also how can the risk exposure be drawn down if the list of risks is not comprehensive in the first place.  Drafting mitigation plans frustrates Project and Design managers who feel the process starts to micro-manage their normal day to day activities & often over states and even elevates issues actually currently being managed.  Subduing risks however denies the Owner the opportunity to mitigate.  
Then there is the link to the Insurance policy, contract risk allocation clauses and the necessary appreciation of what risks are not covered by policies, contract and thus what the residual exposure to the Client is at any point in time.
This presentation challenges the ‘theory’ against the ‘practical’ application of risk management and is designed to ‘provoke’ comment.
Author : Storer Boone
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Author : Khalid Bekka
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Author : Laszlo A. Retfalvi
Description : This presentation provided an overview of industry risk management best practices, techniques, and critical success factors. Attendees will learn the basics of schedule risk analysis and how it may be applied on projects to increase the probability of success.
Author : Stuart Sokoloff
Description :

Design Build procurement offers a unique opportunity to identify alternatives to the design as presented by the Owner’s engineer, and to offer creative and cost effective means to complete the design and construct the project. Although a formal VE analysis is rarely performed by the DB team, alternatives are proposed, evaluated, costed and incorporated if they have merit. Part of the decision making is based on an informal risk evaluation that has three (3) perspectives: 1) Will the alternate disqualify from the project (non-responsive); 2) will the DB be successful in its implementation (especially if approvals are required) and 3) how will it impact upon schedule.

The new Yankee Stadium Station DB project had a cost of over $80 million dollars and was built specifically to offer a transportation alternative to those attending games at the new Yankee Stadium. Work included deep foundations is soft and seismically fragile soils including H-piles and drilled mini-piles, new track, new platforms, a new station building and new 260 ft. long enclosed pedestrian bridge

Author : Robert Rocco
Description : If you are involved in project management, development of cost estimates, or preparation of project schedules and you are not used a risk-based approach, this presentation is for you. Without knowing and managing the risks, costs tend to rise and deadlines are inevitably missed. This presentation provides the basics, showing the inputs to risk management, the outputs especially related to cost impacts, and tools for management, mitigation, and risk-based cost estimating.
Author : Jeffrey Plant
Description : Large European contractors are a significant force in the North American infrastructure market. This presentation will review the players, discuss their competitive advantages and provide an insight into how they approach risk management in the North American context. Attendees may be surprised to learn that the biggest risks faced on alternative delivery projects have little to do with their design and construction.
Author : Denis Dagenais
Description : Experience and lessons learned in risk analysis and risk workshops on projects ranging from 500 k to 5 Billion Capex in industry and manufacturing. Risk workshop facilitation tips are discussed. 

Author : Stuart Sokoloff
Description : A Forensic Evaluation of recent Construction Failures with a retrospective of how a Value/Risk review might have avoided the calamity which could result in property damage, injury or death. Numerous examples will be presented addressing: route cause of the event, how it might have been avoided, and liability for the occurrence.
Author : Imran Motala, P.Eng., PMP : Program Manager, Water & Wastewater, Region of Peel and Aman Singh, M.Eng., P.Eng., PMP : GHD, Leader, Business Consulting, Canada
Description :
Growth projections indicate that the Regional Municipality of Peel (the Region) could be supplying over 2.5 million residential and commercial customers with a reliable and high quality supply of drinking water over the next twenty (20) years.  In response to this, and building on its commitment to provide sustainable and high levels of municipal services, the Region decided to undertake a risk assessment of its transmission and sub-transmission infrastructure to ensure it can continue to deliver drinking water services that meet its customer’s needs while balancing established levels of service, cost of service and risk.  The key objectives of this project consist of:
1. Establishing a risk profile for the Region’s 4,000+ transmission & sub transmission mains
2. Integrating risk results into the Region’s business processes / capital programming initiative to inform decision making related to timing of capital expenditure (i.e. to support optimized renewal planning) for specific projects
3. Development of a corporate risk threshold for water supply and infrastructure
4. Detailed mitigation plans for all ‘high’ risk pipes to achieve a reduce risk to an acceptable level in accordance with the Region’s corporately established risk threshold / appetite
Author : Frank Hochstenbach, MTO
Description :

In addition to replacing the bridge over Whitemans Creek on Hwy 24 south of Paris Ontario, part of the project involved correcting the substandard vertical curves through the Whitemans Creek valley.  This included lowering the highway by more than 3 m in some locations.  One of the major concerns during design was how to manage the groundwater that would daylight during the foundations work and excavation without affecting Whitemans Creek itself, which is a sensitive pristine watercourse and a significant cold water fishery.

This presentation discusses how the risk for managing groundwater was transferred to the Contractor, what happened during construction, and the results.
Title : Balancing Risk and Innovation (PDF | 2014 | MEMBER-ONLY | #399)
Author : Dr. Storer Boone, Ph.D., P.Eng., Golder Associates
Description :

Achieving an appropriate balance of risk in any civil design and construction contract can be challenging under traditional design-bid-built or delivery strategies.  While alternative delivery strategies can be faster, more innovative and less costly than traditional approaches these benefits are not always realized. Design-build procurement is one of many project delivery tools and, when applied correctly, can lead to significant financial and schedule success.  When risks are "transferred" inappropriately, however, design-build or projects procured using non-traditional approaches can underperform and jeopardize use of this valuable strategy. Development of successful RFPs, contracts and project completion is dependent upon appropriate pre-RFP deliberation based on project-specific considerations.  Examples of competing design-build bids on small infrastructure projects will be used to illustrate several key issues that owners, engineers, and contractors may face. The combined experiences from multiple "mega" projects will also be used to illustrate keys to development of successful projects in the context of various value for money assessment approaches.

Author : Will Willson, Director of Risk Management Gardiner & Theobald Inc.
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A claim in the context of this presentation is the assertion of entitlement for compensation from one party of a Owners design or construction contract that the  Owner disputes. 

It is important for an Owner to establish a policy for avoiding Claims closely aligned to their risk retention capacity and transfer policy and appetite.  To understand how Claim / s may arise, many of which are common to all projects, is essential in development of contract documents and approach to management and supervision in construction.  The impact of any particular claim is different on all projects therefore a specific claims avoidance plan for each project is believed essential.   
The Claims Avoidance Plan ( or CAP) sets down the Owners  strategy for avoiding claims between  contractors, the Owner,  and other third parties during the development, design, procurement, and construction of a Project or program of projects. The plan  includes a strategy for mitigating impacts where claims may occur. 
The CAP is the top level claims avoidance strategy.  Geotechnical risks, or risks occurring as a consequence of differing site conditions, unforeseen sub-surface conditions and the like are typically the most damaging in terms of delay and cost impact to a project.  The presentation will review the progression of further detail into the GRAP, the Geotechnical Risk Allocation Plan, and how that then rolls down and then back up from the GBR, the Geotechnical Baseline Report.   The presentation will include typical outlines of both the CAP and GRAP.
Author : Laszlo A. Retfalvi P.Eng. PMP
Description : The project manager is responsible for the overall cost of a project. The presentation will discuss the proper integration of Schedule Risk Analysis and Cost Risk Analysis techniques to offer the project manager powerful insight into not only schedule impacts but also the cost impacts of project risks.
Author : Dwight Sangrey, Golder Associates
Description : Dr. Sangrey explains the principles of risk based cost and schedule assessments for transportation projects and the linkages to VE. Dr. Sangrey was involved in developing the risk based estimating techniques for Washington State Department of Transportation. The process is usually used on large dollar projects.
Title : Risk Analysis as a Project Portfolio Tool (Adobe Acrobat - ".pdf" | 2009 | MEMBER-ONLY | #317)
Author : David Lewis
Description : Risk Analysis as a Portfolio Budgeting Tool
Author : Will Willson
Description : This presentation, through reference to a number of mega projects now completed and the new processes that have emerged from these, demonstrates how risk identification and analysis has helped project sponsors make more informed decisions. The presentation will address how we can better inform politicians in the very early days of a project to avoid embarrassing questions and failed election promises when delivery is delayed. The presentation will also explain how we can make better estimates of schedule and cost, highlights lessons learned and what should be avoided in the future. Best emerging practices for granting agencies will be touched on from the authors experience with the Federal Transit Administration in the United States.
Author : Stephane Larocque
Description :

This session will provide an overview of Cost Risk Analysis (CRA) and describe how it can be an invaluable tool to help your keep projects on time and on budget. Cost Risk Analysis is a proven process that adds significant value to the infrastructure assessment process by providing:

  • A better estimate of project costs and schedule
  • A quantified risk management plan for project planning
  • Targeted mitigation strategies for all anticipated threats
  • etter project cost forecasts for budgeting and bonding
  • Transparency, integrity, and accountability throughout the life-cycle of the project
Title : Risk Reserve Budgeting at Washington State DOT (Adobe Acrobat - | 2009 | MEMBER-ONLY | #301)
Author : Terry Berends
Description : This presentation will discuss how WSDOT has evolved in the area of risk management. WSDOT started out using the 90% confidence factor for budgeting purposes which resulted in project managers doing very little to mitigate identified risks and also allowed scope creep. What percentile should be budgeted is a question that is often asked and not easily answered. Risk reserve budgeting is WSDOT's approach to encouraging aggressive risk management and transparency. Transparency and accountability to the public and legislature is very important to WSDOT. Risk reserves at the program level will also be discussed.
Author : Tony Wing
Description :

John Counter Boulevard is a 3.6 km section of roadway that runs east-west within the City of Kingston. It accommodates large volumes of traffic serving local and regional traffic demand. The roadway has become a critical arterial providing an east-west transportation corridor midway between Highway 401 and downtown Kingston. This route will make up part of the corridor for a future third crossing of the Cataraqui River.

To address existing and future demand, the City is proceeding with plans to widen the arterial from 2 to 4 lanes. The Project offers considerable challenges including a proposed grade separation (road over rail) to be constructed in poor soils and through a wetland, contaminated soils issues, property and funding constraints. The estimated cost included in the ESR for the improvements was $32M (2003 Dollars). The City proposes to fund the project entirely through development charges.

MRC undertook a Risk Management Workshop and Risk Analysis in the early stages of their Preliminary and Detailed Design Assignment prior to the final selection of the grade separation alignment. Although not normally undertaken as part of a Risk Assessment Workshop, a brief Value Engineering brainstorming session was integrated with contributions from all of the Workshop participants. This presentation, a case study of MRC’s RECAP Risk Management Process, will include remarks on the integration of some Value Engineering in the Risk Management Process as well as some comments on the suitability to Municipal Government Transportation Projects.

Author : Will Willson
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Author : Paul Magowan, MMM
Description : Presentation discusses how construction and scheduling risk was managed for a unique green energy deep lake cooling project in the City of Toronto.  Enwave is a utility company that uses cold water from Lake Ontario to cool buildings in Toronto.
Author : David Lewis, HDR
Description : Presentation outlines principles of risk based estimating for infrastructure projects and how risk based estimating supports decision making. Author integrates solid financial principles with sound engineering decision making. Cost estimating, cost modeling, Monte carlo simulation clearly explained. Useful examples for risk registers.
Author : Dan Remollino, MTO; Storer Boone, Golder Associates
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Author : Tom Sorel, Federal Highway Administration
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